The New Geopolitics of Food (4)

Beyond the changes in the environment that make it ever harder to meet human demand, there is an important intangible factor to consider: over the last half century or so, we have come to take agricultural progress for granted. Decade after decade, advancing technology underpinned steady gains in raising land productivity. World grain yeald per acre has tripled since 1950. But now thay era is coming to an end in some of the more agriculturally advanced countries, where farmers are already using all available technologies to raise yields. In effect, the farmers have caught up with the scientists. After climbing for a century, rice yield per acre in Japan has not risen at all for 16 years. In China, yields may level off soon. Just those two countries alone account for 1/3 of the world's  rice harvest.
The rich country - poor country divide could grow even more pronounced. This January, a new stage in the scramble among the importing countries to secure food began to unfold  when South korea, which imports 70% of its grain, announced that it was creating a new public-private entity that will be responsible for acquiring part of its grain. With an initial office in Chicago, the plan is to bypass the large international trading firms by buying grain directly from U.S. farmers. As the Korean acquire their own grain  elevators, they may well sing multiyear delivery contracts with farmers, agreeing to buy specified quantities of wheat, corn, or soybeans ata fixed price.
Other importers will not stand idly by as South Korea tries to tie up a portion of  the U.S. grain harvest even before it gets to market. The enterprising Koreans may soon be joined by China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and other leading importers. Although South Korea's initial focus is the U.S., far and away the world's largest grain exporter, it may later consider brokering  deals with Canada, Australia, Argentina, and other major exporters. This is happening just as China may be on the verge of entering the U.S. market as a potentially massive importer of grain. With China's 1.4 billion increasingly affluent consumers starting to competewith U.S. consumers for the U.S. grain harvest, cheap food, seen by many as an American birthright, may be coming to an end.
No one knows where this intensifying competition for food supplies will go, but the world seems to be moving away from the international cooperation that evolved over several decades following World War II to an every-country-for-itself philosophy. Food nationalism may help secure food supplies for individual affuent countries, but it does little to enhance world food security. The low-income countries that host land grabs or import grain will likely see their food situation deteriorate.