Food and Climate Risks

The role of a changing climate is appropriately highlighted as a major impediment to maintaining consistent and predictable  food supplies for the wirld's growing population. Food prices have been rising recently and have caused significant hardship for some of the most globally vulnerable populations. These vulnerable populations live in some of the most politically unstable regions, and continued food inflation could exacerbate existing social and economic issues with potentially unpredictable consequences.
Unfortunately as the global climate changes and agricultural productivity shifts, these sort of price rises in basic foods are likely to become more commonplace for the economically sensitive populations in these politically unstable regions: Southeast Asia, Northern Africa, the Middle East.
Recent work shows that several of the world's most important crops could be near climatic thresholds that will seriously impair  agricultural yields. Several of these crops (corn, rice, soybeans, wheat) that are the source of 75% of global calorie consumption appear to be sensitive to increases in temperature variation, especially to the occurrence of a particularly hot day in the middle of the growing season.
Other research suggests that increasing temperatures could cause major difficulties for farmers in Southeast Asia  who produce a large fraction of global rice output, an important staple in the region. This research recognizes that the human body simply cannot perform the hard manual labour as the temperatures climate models predict. By 2050, these temperatures are expected to be commonplace for the region, potentially resulting in a huge loss of agricultural output.
If food prices  rise in the rich world, consumers will spend more of their income on food and forgo other consumption options. In developing nations this trade-off may not be possible, creating a situation where political unrest could become more likely. According to World Bank data, over 50% of the world's population lives on less then $2 a day. Obviously for these populations, even small increases in the prices of staples can cause real difficulties.